Evaluating agricultural land use change in Illinois

ABSTRACT:

The National Agricultural Lands Study (NALS) was tested for Illinois on the basis of a critique of Census of Agriculture data and statistics compiled by the Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission (NIPC). Census data were tested with the aid of rectangular coordinates from the Illinois State Geological Survey and other sources. Analysis of the Census data showed that those from the mail censuses (1969, 1974, and 1978) had exaggerated the extent of land in farms. This overcount was especially striking in the 1978 Census (1.5 million acres), forcing the conclusion that farmland had declined much more than Census data would indicate. NIPC data for the six counties in the Chicago metropolitan area showed rapid conversion to urban land use (45 percent in the 11 years from 1964 to 1975). This classical case of urban decentralization was accompanied by very slow population growth but a rapid rise in per capita real income, pointing to rising affluence as the driving force in land conversion. As a conclusion, the NALS estimates for rates of land conversion from agricultural to urban uses were upheld for Illinois.