ABSTRACT:
An assessment of uncertainties in predictions was performed for the WEPP model by identifying the contribution of parameter variance and model bias on the Mean Square Error of three model response variables. A Monte Carlo simulation scheme with correlated variable generation was assembled into WEPP to produce a large number of model responses to be compared to observed data of a semi-arid rangeland watershed. The behavior of errors and prediction intervals illustrate the model's ability to simulate the system. This analysis answered relevant questions related to model uncertainty and to identify noisy components in the model.
Footnotes
Mario Tiscareno-Lopez is a hydrologist with the Centro Nacional de Produccion Sostenible-INI-FAP-SAGAR, Michoacan 58260, Mexico. Mark A. Weltz is a hyydrologist with the Southwestern Watershed Research Center, USDA-ARS, Tucson, AZ. and Vicente L. Lopes is a hydrologist and Assistant Professor at the School of Renewable Natural Resources, The University of Arizona, Tucson, 85721.
- Copyright 1995 by the Soil and Water Conservation Society
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