The Ogallala aquifer is a globally valuable resource that supports thriving agricultural communities in eight states within the western Great Plains of the United States, stretching from South Dakota to Texas. Use of this water resource reduces risk and significantly boosts agricultural productivity. The region hosts many feedyards, ethanol plants, dairies, and cheese-processing facilities that rely on irrigated feed and forage supplies (Owens 2018). Agricultural sales from the Ogallala aquifer region contribute billions of dollars to local economies and local and national GDP every year (Steiner et al. 2021; USDA NASS 2022). Seventeen counties in the region each produce more than US$1 billion in agricultural products annually and rank among the top 55 counties in the nation (USDA NASS 2022). In Kansas, the boost in crop yields made possible by irrigation from the Ogallala aquifer supports an additional 2.4 million head of cattle per year, increasing animal sales in Kansas by US$2.4 billion annually (Steiner et al. 2021).
The largest land type is nonirrigated, mid- to short-grass prairie that supports beef cattle grazing and native plant and animal habitats. Hydrologically, the aquifer is highly variable. Saturated thickness levels prior to intensive development of wells across the region ranged from less than 50 feet to more than 1,000 feet. Water flows slowly in a west to east direction, with several river channels—including the Platte, Republican, Arkansas, and Canadian rivers—blocking north-south flow. About two-thirds of the aquifer underlies the Nebraska Sandhills. The surface hydrology in the western and southern portions of the aquifer has few widely spaced streams with low to intermittent flow. Thousands of playa depressions, when ecologically intact, collect local runoff, provide recharge points, and support intermittent wetland ecosystems that support regional biodiversity (figure 1).
Aerial photograph showing the patchwork of irrigated and rainfed cropping, playa lakes, rural residences, and wind energy in the Texas High Plains. Photo by Joel Lisonbee.
More than 85% of the water pumped is used to support irrigated cropping systems through use of water rights held by a small number of large crop irrigators. The region is sparsely populated. While rural areas and small communities are experiencing population declines, regional centers are growing through an influx of immigrant families working in the meat processing and other agricultural and energy industries and the expansion of housing developments serving as bedroom communities.
A mindset of inevitability about eventual groundwater depletion has been fostered thanks to a system of water rights that has overallocated the resource and was configured generally to mine the aquifer. This article highlights that other practical and feasible pathways exist to sustain communities and agriculture in the region. Many of these represent opportunities that are only possible with new data, management tools, and strategies combined with a collaborative culture involving diverse entities and people involved with rural and urban water management in the region.
AQUIFER STATUS AND ACTIVITIES
Irrigation developed rapidly starting in the 1960s as well-drilling and pumping technologies improved, and it expanded through the 1970s with the spread of center-pivot sprinkler systems. Due to over-allocation, water level declines have been severe in many parts of the region, particularly in the southern and western portions (figure 2), where the saturated thickness of the aquifer was generally thinner already. Based on current trends, the anticipated usable lifespan of some of the most productive portions of the aquifer can be measured on the order of decades (Deines et al. 2020). A warming climate, which typically intensifies pumping for crop irrigation, may shorten this timeframe, particularly with “business as usual” crop production and rotations and irrigation management patterns (Nozari et al. 2022). The number of irrigated acres in the Texas Panhandle and High Plains regions have declined by 40% since the early 1980s, while the population of these regions has grown by 25%. Even with this transition, agriculture has remained the region’s primary economic driver. Regional water planning models projecting out to 2080 forecast the potential of implementing known water management tools and practices that could lower overall water use from current levels by 55% while accommodating for a 34% increase in regional population numbers (TWDB 2020).
Depletion of the High Plains aquifer 1935 to 2016, overlain with the boundary of the Ogallala formation. The inset of southwestern Kansas shows that there is great variability in the amount of depletion at fine scale, due to the variability in the aquifer characteristics as well as water withdrawals. Note: Blue indicates no change or increase in depth to water while cream to brown indicate increasing levels of depletion. Adapted from McGuire and Strauch, 2024.
Variability in the aquifer resource presents policy challenges and highlights the need for coordinated planning and incentives to limit inequitable impacts on water users and local communities. Because water law in the United States is primarily set by states, some of which have established local management entities, water management authorities and policies also are extremely diverse across the Ogallala region (figure 3).
Water management varies by state and by the water management entities within states, leading to highly variable water management authorities and policies across the region.
There is a great need for increased adoption of conservation management practices and technologies, but there are also many complexities and tradeoffs that come with changing production systems. Challenges for transformational change in the region include but are not limited to existing farm or water policies that unintentionally preserve the status quo, lack of resources to improve outdated or inefficient irrigation infrastructure, existing markets and transport pathways for higher water-use crops, and the reliance on groundwater due to high precipitation variability. A highly localized water context from field to farm to larger scales and farmers’ risk tolerance shapes their perceptions, decision-making, and planning. Additionally, the implementation of “efficient” irrigation technologies has been shown paradoxically to lead to increased—not decreased—overall water use if water “savings” from some acres are applied to others or used to support multiple crops within a single season (Fischer and Sanderson 2022). Regardless, the work of progressive producers and extensive research have conclusively demonstrated over time how a wide range of adaptive management strategies can slow or even stall aquifer decline in certain areas.
The best-known example of an effective adaptive management strategy from the Ogallala region is the “Sheridan 6” Local Enhanced Management Area (LEMA), established by the Kansas Groundwater Management District No. 4 (GMD4) in 2013. Irrigators within this LEMA were allocated 20% less water in exchange for flexibility in how and when they might use a five-year allocation of water from a given well. Extensive study of groundwater hydrology in Kansas has been conducted to estimate the reduction in average annual water withdrawals required to achieve zero water level decline, called “Q-stable” (figure 4a) (Butler et al. 2018). Figure 4b shows how water extraction and groundwater level decline decreased in Sheridan 6 under the LEMA policy compared to pre-LEMA years. Now in its third five-year cycle, water withdrawals in this area have been reduced by nearly 35% (Whittemore et al. 2023) with minimal impacts on net farm profits due to shifts in water management and cropping rotations and the functional interdependence of cropping and local feeding operations (Golden 2018). Currently, all of the land within Kansas’s GMD4 and GMD1 are in LEMAs that limit irrigators’ water use (Kansas Department of Agriculture 2024). Whittemore et al. (2023) determined that Q-stable water-use reductions were 32%, 25%, and 18% for GMDs 1, 3, and 4, respectively. Kansas GMDs 2 and 5, located in wetter, eastern portions of the High Plains aquifer and characterized by sandier soils that allow for flowthrough and recharge to relatively shallower water tables, were already near Q-stable water-use levels.
Water level decline as related to average annual withdrawals for (a) GMD4, demonstrating percentage reduction in average annual water withdrawals required to achieve zero water level decline (Q-stable), and (b) Sheridan 6 LEMA, illustrating the rate of decline under LEMA (2013 to 2022) and pre-LEMA (2002 to 2012). Source: Adapted from Whittemore et al. (2023).
Schipanski et al. (2023) identified three water-use trajectories that require different strategies and actions moving forward based on the spatial hydrologic heterogeneity within and across the region:
Sustainable Use: Areas with deeper reserves of groundwater which require little land-use change but improvements in irrigation management, particularly to address water quality concerns
Extended Use: Areas with thinner or rapidly declining aquifer saturated thickness which require implementation of technologies and management strategies including shifts to lower water-use crop rotations and/or selective irrigation well retirement
Managed Depletion and Transition: Areas with very thin saturated thickness requiring major land-use transitions and large-scale irrigation retirement to preserve groundwater to support domestic, municipal, and industrial uses and to restore broken cropland into perennial vegetation where it is unsuited for dryland cropping
There is no one-size-fits-all solution to ensure regional agricultural sustainability. Instead, there are many concurrent needs for action on water (related to pumped water, precipitation, water storage and reuse, etc.). Many players are working toward solutions in this space, whether within or for agricultural, municipal, industrial, environmental, research, corporate, or community domains. Some examples of recent demonstrations of actionable ideas provide a pathway toward more sustainable aquifer use (table 1). Adapting and scaling such efforts requires increased awareness, collaboration, and trust, underscoring the importance of social factors being at the core of transitions that may be very technical or technological in their execution as part of sustaining rural communities and agricultural system functions in this region (Carnes and Sanderson 2022; Sanderson and Hughes 2019).
Recent demonstrations of actionable ideas undertaken to address Ogallala aquifer depletion.
The third Ogallala Aquifer Summit, attended by more than 230 water management leaders from all eight Ogallala states, was convened in March 2024 to increase networking and collaboration; identify and support broader awareness of critical activities for sustaining economic activity, aquifer health, and resilience to climate change; and identify common vision, practices, and opportunities to adapt or scale successful efforts or engage in new relationships and activities moving forward. A sequence of panels highlighting successful programs and approaches, interwoven with facilitated small-group discussions, identified needed next steps, which are presented in the Ogallala Aquifer Summit Report (Lisonbee et al. 2024) and summarized here.
Recognizing and Enlisting Agents of Change. Finding the balance between yield/profit and sustainability/conservation will require shifts in management and land use that involve local, regional, and national/international stakeholders, not just irrigators.
Education. Scaling broader management shifts and smart land-use planning requires deep investment in learning across the public and private sectors and alignment of resources and efforts in training a new critical workforce to backstop producers and troubleshoot in new opportunities in advanced and precision management for irrigation and other inputs.
Peer Examples. Early adopters or neighbors in their community having success with a new technology or management strategy that conserved water while maintaining profitability can influence others to follow. Peer-to-peer networks provide learning from success stories or lessons learned and help establish respect and trust for innovative approaches to management, demonstrating that conservation is not, as often assumed, antithetical to productive and profitable agriculture.
Trusted Partnerships. Trusted partnerships accelerate the diffusion of ideas and motivate action. Programs like Master Irrigator and Testing Ag Performance Solutions (TAPS) help highlight and celebrate practical management expertise as part of bringing together additional support and insight from academia, the technology industry, public agencies, commodity groups, and others as a community of practice. Recognizing the power of this collaborative approach to scale change and conservation-oriented management, the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) in five Ogallala region states funds a partnership to support the function and expansion of TAPS and Master Irrigator programs across the High Plains, involving multiple universities along with many other public and private agricultural industries and entities.
Economic Practicality. The return on investment for shifts in management, irrigation infrastructure, or other tools is often unknown or unclear at the farm or watershed level. More research is needed to clarify the cost (time and dollars) involved with successful implementation of a new practice or technology. How to solidify and buffer conservation efforts against forces of fluctuating markets and costs of production remains a challenge.
Technological Innovation. New pathways to value water stewardship are possible thanks to more real-time data gathering on crop water use and water applications through which value chain partners and public agencies can support conservation and other environmental and social goals.
Security and Accessibility. Not everyone can use web-based tools. The lack of consistent or affordable digital connectivity in rural areas is a persistent barrier. Meanwhile, increased digitization increases exposure to privacy and security risks. Data quality, control, and recognizing and valuing producers as data owners and/or authors are key challenges.
Accuracy and Timeliness. Verifiable data that can be accessed in real time is a game changer for all kinds of applications of tools, knowledge, and efforts that can result in water, labor, and energy savings; reduced agricultural GHG emissions; and improved environmental outcomes. Inaccurate data (e.g., misread or badly calibrated water meters) will erode trust.
Usability. Management tools and user interfaces need to be climate, region, and soil type specific; dependable, unbiased, engaging, understandable, simple, and effective; and maintained after development. Constant changeover in the private sector and the boom-busts cycles of ag tech startups lead to tools being abandoned and a lack of continuity in trusted personnel on the ground who understand local and regional management contexts. Data and tool investments should prioritize open-source, adaptable tools that can integrate multiple kinds of data streams.
Financial Incentives. Integrating new data, tools, or technologies, and including training and troubleshooting, comes at a cost that requires significant investment. Expansion of support to ramp up the deployment of soil moisture and localized weather station sensors eases access to those willing to try new things. Involving the private sector in collaborative work to mitigate potential risks (to land value, to sustainable sourcing of feed, fuel, and fiber, etc.) as part of encouraging regional shifts in management have real potential for impact.
ADDRESSING CHALLENGES TO SUSTAINABILITY
While much progress has been made to move toward a sustainable future for the Ogallala region, many tough challenges remain, as discussed briefly here.
Mindset. Recent surveys in Oklahoma and Kansas indicate that while irrigators are aware of the aquifer decline and the need for change, many feel that they are doing what they need to do in their operations (Lauer et al. 2018; Lauer and Sanderson 2020). It is important to persist in having difficult conversations with those who have yet to adopt water-saving practices.
Climate Change. Increasing temperatures create additional challenges due to increased evapotranspiration (ET) and crop stress. Trends in the High Plains region of Texas show that temperatures are increasing by about 2°F (1.1°C) per century, while the Oklahoma Panhandle and western Kansas both see increases of about 1°F (0.6°C) per century (NCEI 2024). Higher temperatures combined with naturally high precipitation variability are leading to more frequent and severe droughts. This is a challenge across the entire Ogallala aquifer region, but it is particularly challenging in the southern portions.
Water Quality. Researchers have identified distinct geographic patterns in groundwater contamination and associated salinization in the Ogallala aquifer region (Chaudhuri and Ale 2014), along with other water quality issues (e.g., nitrates, PFAS) that demand careful attention.
Reduced Irrigated Acreage. Many parts of the region are already experiencing reduced irrigated acreage, which is associated with reduced economic activity in local communities as input purchases and farmgate receipts are reduced.
Crop Insurance. Many producers find that integrating conservation in their operations can stabilize and improve groundwater levels at their farm, but making shifts to lower water-use crops than corn or pursuing limited irrigation management of corn are not always insurable through Federal Crop Insurance programs, even though these shifts would help reduce farming risk in the near and longer term. There is a need for insurance products that consider long-term water sustainability concurrent with calculating seasonal crop risk.
Water Workforce. The Ogallala region needs to adopt a culture of lifelong learners where employers invest in employees to gain new skills and bring those skills back to the farm or local business. There is also a critical workforce gap and opportunity for new, meaningful jobs involving data translation, visualization, interpretation, and linkage to make tools and practices easier to integrate effectively for producers and water managers.
Variable Water Policy. Differences in water policy across state or district boundaries can lead people to believe that others may not be doing their part, rather than encourage them to work together to recognize and implement necessary actions.
Broader Engagement. When it comes to collaborating on Ogallala aquifer water issues, it is important that all sectors, not just water rights holders and crop irrigators, be engaged in understanding and acting to address the region’s water-related risk. This is essential to maintain momentum in scaling change in thinking and practice within the region. Additionally, variability in policy creates a barrier for national and multinational companies when designing activities or pathways for groundwater conservation incentives.
THE WAY FORWARD
Managing limited groundwater resources ever more effectively is key to fostering the well-being and economic vitality of the Ogallala region’s communities, maintaining land value, and mitigating domestic and international food supply and supply chain risk. Events like the recurring Ogallala Summit and other meetings (e.g., Kansas Regional Advisory Committee meetings, state-level water conferences hosted by governors in Kansas and Oklahoma) are helping to build a growing culture of shared understanding, partnership, and collaboration across the Ogallala aquifer region—within states and across states—involving producers, water managers, extension, researchers, nonprofit organizations, state and federal agencies, water utilities, and others. Dialogue at these meetings has highlighted the need for a more holistic regional approach that involves investment and engagement through public-private sector partnerships. Managing and mitigating water-related risk exposure will require a highly adaptive and flexible approach that can support water managers and farmers in making both small and large adjustments to irrigation systems and wells, as well as cropping and land-use decisions from one field and farm to another. The derivative benefits of such shifts being implemented on farm, at scale, will extend to local communities, agricultural lenders, investors and bankers, landowners, food processors, and the overall food value chain.
Changes in behavior anticipated as being feasible by 2027 (the expected date of the next Ogallala Aquifer Summit) include the following: (1) More water users (including but not limited to irrigators) using real-time telemetry connected to water metering for awareness, planning, and reporting of water use; (2) expanded use of the Q-stable approach connected to water intensity scoring and related water stewardship type credits that water managers and corporations can use to encourage, set, and track conservation and management goals and commitments; (3) adapted versions of the Kansas LEMA and Water Conservation Areas (WCA) approaches applied to groundwater districts in other states in the region, stemming from “hard conversations” about water policy (local, state and interstate) already underway in these other states; (4) USDA’s Risk Management Agency and crop insurance providers offering more flexible options for those who want to conserve water; (5) increased efforts to support water recycling linking regional urban and rural water-use systems; (6) ongoing and expanded support for projects linking ecosystem, environment, and aquifer health, such as playa restoration; and (7) new, committed partnerships involving public and private partners focused on supporting and recognizing irrigators for effective conservation-oriented management of water and other inputs (Lisonbee et al. 2024).
SUMMARY
Ogallala aquifer depletion has local to global ramifications. What “can be done” to address depletion is similarly of global significance. A longstanding mindset of inevitability of groundwater depletion in the region is shifting thanks to the existence of increasingly feasible pathways for a wide range of actors to support productive shifts in conservation-oriented agricultural management at multiple scales and efforts to boost within and cross-state awareness of and engagement in these pathways.
The Ogallala Aquifer Summits have been key in coalescing thinking and action around a new vision for the future of the region through iterative, interactive, and facilitated discussions that help identify the factors, programs, investment, and knowledge required to scale land use and water management shifts to sustain the region’s communities and agriculture. Over time, this conversation has evolved. The first Summit in 2018 focused on the value of cultivating a culture of exchange between people, communities, and states; the 2021 Summit focused on the need to align action and lay a foundation for workforce development to scale broader integration of data, tools, and conservation-oriented practice, and on collective rethinking about aquifer depletion as a “situation to manage rather than a problem to solve”; and the 2024 Summit highlighted the untapped positive potential of engaging broader value chain support to protect food, fuel, and fiber sourcing regions and encourage policy shifts. Adaptive management is already proving essential for slowing aquifer decline; as climate change increases pressures on limited water resources, leveraging new tools combined with diverse sets of socially engaged actors and partners can help ensure the viability of current and future generations in the Ogallala High-Plains region.
Acknowledgements
Jean L. Steiner’s work on manuscript preparation was supported by the USDA Southern Plains Climate Hub, the Kansas Water Institute, and the Kansas Center for Agricultural Resources and the Environment. Her attendance at the 2024 Ogallala Summit was supported by USDA-NIFA Award Number 2019-69012-29853. The authors appreciate the assistance of Erin Haacker, Nebraska Water Center, in preparation of figure 2, and Ty Fredrickson, USDA Southern Plains Climate Hub, in summarizing the 2022 Census of Agriculture data. Lacey Moore developed figure 3 with support from USDA-NIFA Award Number 2016-68007-25066, “Sustaining agriculture through adaptive management to preserve the Ogallala aquifer under a changing climate.” Amy Kremen’s work was supported by the multistate “Climate Smart Advances in Agricultural Performance” Technical Agreement funded by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service. This article was also produced with support from USDA-NIFA Award Number 2024-67019-42039 for the 2024 Ogallala Aquifer Summit.
- Received October 1, 2024.
- © 2024 by the Soil and Water Conservation Society
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