TY - JOUR T1 - Impacts of land use change on freshwater runoff into the near-coastal zone, Holetown Watershed, Barbados: Comparisons of long-term to single-storm effects JF - Journal of Soil and Water Conservation SP - 584 LP - 592 VL - 54 IS - 3 AU - C. Leitch AU - J. Harbor Y1 - 1999/07/01 UR - http://www.jswconline.org/content/54/3/584.abstract N2 - The Holetown Watershed has undergone extensive land use change since the 1960s, and is now the most concentrated center of tourism on the west coast of Barbados. Local planners perceive that urban expansion related to tourism, and modifications to agricultural land use and drainage systems, are the cause of recent flooding and declines in the nearshore marine environment. A Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) analysis predicts a 5.5% increase in average annual runoff and a 4.3% increase for peak year runoff between pre-development (1964) and existing (1996) land uses. Urbanization and plugging of sinkholes caused substantial increases in runoff, but this was counteracted by declines in agricultural runoff due to conversion of sugar cane to pasture. L-THIA results are consistent with short-term streamflow monitoring, but additional information on water quality changes is necessary to understand the total impacts of land use change on this nearshore environment. L-THIA analyses provide quick, useful insight into hydrologic impacts as a tool for natural resource conservation efforts. ER -