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Case study on potential agricultural responses to climate change in a California landscape

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Abstract

Agriculture in the Central Valley of California, one of the USA’s main sources of fruits, nuts, and vegetables, is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the next 50 years. This interdisciplinary case study in Yolo County shows the urgency for building adaptation strategies to climate change. Climate change and the effects of greenhouse gas emissions are complex, and several of the county’s current crops will be less viable in 2050. The study uses a variety of methods to assemble information relevant to Yolo County’s agriculture, including literature reviews, models, geographic information system analysis, interviews with agency personnel, and a survey of farmers. Potential adaptation and mitigation responses by growers include changes in crop taxa, irrigation methods, fertilization practices, tillage practices, and land use. On a regional basis, planning must consider the vulnerability of agricultural production and the tradeoffs associated with diversified farmlands, drought, flooding of cropland, loss of habitat for wild species of concern, and urbanization.

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Appendix

Appendix

1.1 GIS Analyses of Agricultural Land Use and Soil Patterns

Geomorphic regions. The analysis to stratify Yolo County into four geomorphic regions used soil characteristics from the USDA SSURGO database. For each map unit, the component table in SSURGO was used to identify the name, soil order, and soil great group of its dominant soil component. The map unit was then assigned to one of the four geomorphic regions using a lookup table based upon the soil characteristics.

Crop types and soil characteristics. The relationship between cropping types and soil characteristics was analyzed by overlaying a land use map (California Department of Water Resources 1997) on the SSURGO map for Yolo County. The land use map gives 54 different crop types and 91 different land use types in total, as determined by combining values in the CLASS1 and SUBCLASS1 columns in the attribute table. The overlay of the land use map and the soils information facilitated cross-tabulating the areas and proportions of crop types with respect to the different geomorphic regions. The spatial overlays and cross-tabulations were performed using the spatial database PostGIS (http://postgis.refractions.net).

Flood frequency. Flood frequency values were taken from the dominant condition flooding frequency column in the map unit aggregated attributes table in the Yolo County SSURGO database. Four categories of flood frequency were listed in this table: Frequent (1–2 times/year), Occasional (>5 times every 50 years), Rare (once every 100 years), and None.

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Jackson, L.E., Wheeler, S.M., Hollander, A.D. et al. Case study on potential agricultural responses to climate change in a California landscape. Climatic Change 109 (Suppl 1), 407–427 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0306-3

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