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Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field

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Abstract

The effect of climate change on crop production and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) pollution from subsurface drained fields is of a great concern. Using the calibrated and validated RZWQM2 (coupled with CERES-Maize and CROPGRO in DSSAT), the potential effects of climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (CO2) on tile drainage volume, NO3-N losses, and crop production were assessed integrally for the first time for a corn-soybean rotation cropping system near Gilmore City, Iowa. RZWQM2 simulated results under 20-year observed historical weather data (1990–2009) and ambient CO2 were compared to those under 20-year projected future meteorological data (2045–2064) and elevated CO2, with all management practices unchanged. The results showed that, under the future climate, tile drainage, NO3-N loss and flow-weighted average NO3-N concentration (FWANC) increased by 4.2 cm year−1 (+14.5 %), 11.6 kg N ha−1 year−1 (+33.7 %) and 2.0 mg L−1 (+16.4 %), respectively. Yields increased by 875 kg ha−1 (+28.0 %) for soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] but decreased by 1380 kg ha−1 (−14.7 %) for corn (Zea mays L.). The yield of the C3 soybean increased mostly due to CO2 enrichment but increased temperature had negligible effect. However, the yield of C4 corn decreased largely because of fewer days to physiological maturity due to increased temperature and limited benefit of elevated CO2 to corn yield under subhumid climate. Relative humidity, short wave radiation and wind speed had small or negligible impacts on FWANC or grain yields. With the predicted trend, this study suggests that to mitigate NO3-N pollution from subsurface drained corn-soybean field in Iowa is a more challenging task in the future without changing current management practices. This study also demonstrates the advantage of an agricultural system model in assessing climate change impacts on water quality and crop production. Further investigation on management practice adaptation is needed.

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Abbreviations

AE :

Actual evaporation

AET :

Actual evapotranspiration

AT :

Actual transpiration

BL:

Baseline

BL_M1:

Future scenario from CRCM_ccsm

BL_M2:

Future scenario from CRCM_cgcm3

BL_M3:

Future scenario from HRM3_hadcm3

BL_M4:

Future scenario from RCM3_cgcm3

BL_M5:

Future scenario from RCM3_gfdl

BL_M6:

Future scenario from WRFG_ccsm

CDFs:

Cumulative distribution functions

CO2 :

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration

DSSAT:

Decision support system for Agrotechnology transfer

FWANC:

Flow-weighted average NO3-N concentration

GCM-RCM:

Coupled General Circulation Model and Regional Climate Model

NARCCAP:

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

NO3-N:

Nitrate-nitrogen

PE :

Potential evaporation

PET :

Potential evapotranspiration

PT :

Potential transpiration

RH :

Relative humidity

RZWQM2:

Root Zone Water Quality Model

WUE :

Water use efficiency

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada

    Zhaozhi Wang & Zhiming Qi

  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000, USA

    Lulin Xue & Melissa Bukovsky

  3. Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011, USA

    Matthew J. Helmers

Authors
  1. Zhaozhi Wang
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  2. Zhiming Qi
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  3. Lulin Xue
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  4. Melissa Bukovsky
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  5. Matthew J. Helmers
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Zhaozhi Wang or Zhiming Qi.

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Wang, Z., Qi, Z., Xue, L. et al. Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field. Climatic Change 129, 323–335 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1342-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1342-1

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