Elsevier

Journal of Econometrics

Volume 17, Issue 1, September 1981, Pages 1-19
Journal of Econometrics

Assessing the potential demand for electric cars

https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(81)90056-7Get rights and content

Abstract

An ordered logit specification for use on ranked individual data is used to analyze survey data on potential consumer demand for electric cars. In many situations in economics and marketing we would like to be able to forecast consumer demands for goods which have not yet appeared in actual markets. By defining goods as a bundle of underlying attributes, we can use discrete choice models to estimate consumer evaluations. Then new good demand is forecast by use of the estimated coefficients to compare consumer evaluation of the new good to existing choices. When ranked individual data are available, we can estimate separate coefficients for each individual rather than assuming identical coefficients as is usual with logit models. Our results indicate considerable dispersion in individual coefficients. This finding can have important implications for new product analysis.

References (7)

  • S. Cardell

    A logit specification with a distribution of preferences

    (1977)
  • G.W. Fischer et al.

    Random versus fixed coefficient quantal choice models

    Econometric models of discrete data

    (1981)
  • J. Hausman

    Individual discount rates and the purchase and utilization of energy using durables

    Bell Journal of Economics

    (1979)
There are more references available in the full text version of this article.

Cited by (0)

This paper was written under a contract to Charles River Associates by the Electric Power Research Institute and was presented at the EPRI Workshop on the Purchase and Utilization of Energy Using Durables, November –2, 1979. Mike Veall provided excellent research assistance. Dan McFadden and a referee provided helpful comments.

View full text